[P1]

Originally Posted by Busa Dave

Unfortunately the guy moved to my state. Hopefully competition the next couple of years will put him where he needs to be. Looking at the PE it is pretty obvious the company valuation is still driven by emotional people who may be surprised in the not to distant future and not in a good way.

As the rest of the industry gets established in the EV world will it not be pretty for the tick symbol T. Only time will tell.

"Moved"

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Busa Dave

Looking at the PE it is pretty obvious the company valuation is still driven by emotional people

If by "emotional people" you mean self-made millionaire investors, then ok.

The "buh buh buh the P:E" talking point for a growth company is ridiculous - it's the reverse of expecting GM to have the market growth of TSLA - i.e., "cats sleep w dogs right?"

As an example, here's a comparo of Amazon & TSLA's CAGR - spoiler alert: Tesla is growing faster than Amazon, 73% CAGR vs Amazon's 53%.



*though I believe TSLA's growth comes with much more risk as it's global consumers vs US consumers ... though that also means more upside if they make it through the chinese gauntlet.

[TiMSport]

With this mega ongoing thread about Musk and Tesla, I'm surprised none of you have started a new thread for SpaceX. That is an incredible story and I find it interesting that Elon Musk "competes" with Amazon's Bezos and his company Blue Origin, though I don't see any competition per se. I suppose that enterprise will be more focused on consumers flying to space compared to Musk's infatuation with traveling to Mars? GrussGott's last entry about TSLA and AMZN reminded me of this subject.

Anyway, carry on. Lol.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by TiMSport

I'm surprised none of you have started a new thread for SpaceX.

Tesla has always attracted the Culture Separatists who endlessly attempt to push easily disproven business talking points whereas SpaceX provides no such attractive nuisance.

One doesn't have to like Musk, Teslas, TSLA, or SpaceX to be impressed by what Musk has accomplished ... if you're principled.

[TiMSport]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Tesla has always attracted the Culture Separatists who endlessly attempt to push easily disproven business talking points whereas SpaceX is provides no such attractive nuisance.

One doesn't have to like Musk, Teslas, TSLA, or SpaceX to be impressed by what Musk has accomplished ... if you're principled.

Ha, very true. I don't think anyone can say shit about SpaceX because it's extremely impressive what they have accomplished and there is very little competition per se. This most recent return of astronauts from the ISS is just the beginning. I don't think anyone could have imagined the ability to re-use rocket engines and then to realize it and put it into practice with such stunning success just speaks volumes.

I can't think of anyone that matches up with Elon Musk in terms of the vast range of accomplishments he has demonstrated with such different business entities. Can't even imagine what the future will look like with that other crazy stuff he's developing with AI and Neuralink. Dude is a genius, period.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by TiMSport

Dude is a genius, period.

Maybe he's a genius, though my read on him having talked to people who've worked with him is, he's into 1st principles and the details of engineering problems ... combine that with a willingness to take extreme risk and you get to his accomplishments. Many forget he literally put every dollar he had into Tesla and got very close to broke - few are willing to absorb that level of personal financial risk.

Said differently, none of Musk's accomplishments are unbelievable engineering accomplishments, they're just really hard problems solved by someone with the grit, tenacity, and risk tolerance to do it ... and few have that.

End of the day, all great business strategy can be summed up in 4 words: do something very hard.

Which makes Musk the ultimate business strategist.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

(1.) Tesla's regulatory credit revenue is GOING UP
This is your key sign that not only is the rest of the industry NOT getting established, they're going backwards, thus they have to pay Tesla for regulatory credits because their BEVs aren't selling (or don't exist). (e.g., Tesla sells every BEV it can make; VW sells 1.5 production days/month of BEVs)

:

[img]

View post on imgur.com

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https://www.ft.com/content/4f3f523b-...7-0632c06a083a

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

https://www.ft.com/content/4f3f523b-...7-0632c06a083a

I think we should retire "buh buh regulatory credits", here's why:

(a.) Insignificant #

(b.) Balance sheet game

Said differently, the CFO could tweak any of 50 things and replace that line item while changing nothing else ... it's the media's favorite go-to Tesla story ... wait, no that's wrong.

The media's favorite Tesla story is:

[KRS_SN]

https://www.bmwblog.com/2021/05/07/b...-sales-record/

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

https://www.bmwblog.com/2021/05/07/b...-sales-record/

Well BMW numbers

But, yeah, those X5 45e (and other hybrids) are selling like hotcakes and BMW is an SUV company now ... I'd love to see the model breakdown (such as it is) if it's out there ...

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well BMW numbers

But, yeah, those X5 45e (and other hybrids) are selling like hotcakes and BMW is an SUV company now ... I'd love to see the model breakdown (such as it is) if it's out there ...

details are sketchy but good profit.
2,3,5,7,x1,x2,x3,x5 all have hybrid options.
Ix3 available I3 and I8 available but soon not to be.
ix i4 ix1 etc in the horizon.
Nomenclature is confusing.
i= petrol in bmw
530e = hybrid
but i4 =electric
only real grumble.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

details are sketchy but good profit.
2,3,5,7,x1,x2,x3,x5 all have hybrid options.
Ix3 available I3 and I8 available but soon not to be.
ix i4 ix1 etc in the horizon.
Nomenclature is confusing.
i= petrol in bmw
530e = hybrid
but i4 =electric
only real grumble.

Ya know I've finally caught up on Sandy's review of the Mach-e and I think Tesla's got some trouble there ... Ford is serious and has cut through a lot of politics (I'd wager) to make a damn good first attempt at an EV - it's product that a company that's been making cars for 100 years should be able to deliver.

The Bolt and ID.4 are frankestein cars pulled together from the part bin & political infighting - company killers.

in any event, the Mach-e seems to be a really good car and the next iteration might even be a great car ... if they can get the charger network pinned down, they'll be real competition for Tesla!

[TiMSport]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

But, yeah, those X5 45e (and other hybrids) are selling like hotcakes and BMW is an SUV company now ...

You mean SAV company, lol.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by TiMSport

You mean SAV company, lol.

Somewhere inside BMW's Silicon Valley Mountain View office:



Back @ the tower in Munich ...

[GrussGott]

Risky Prediction:
ICE will be around for a long while, but not due to necessity, rather as art.

I've been talking to some people lately and an idea occurred to me, or maybe just came into crystal clear focus:

The World will switch to BEVs, but not due to the standard reasons, rather because cars are now tech and software doesn't work well with ICE. That simple. Put batteries and e-engines into a car and the hardware is now an instantly upgradable platform; not just for tech features, but in the mechanics of the car itself ... and this paradigm is not only what people have become familiar with in their other personal devices (phones, TV, air purifiers, home lighting, whatever), it's what they EXPECT. and that more than anything else will drive the switch.

And when you look at it fully and completely that way, you realize every automaker SUCKS at software - and, TBH, even Tesla. They may be the best at it, but they're still leagues away from where they could be.

Which brings us back to Apple.

I've been a doubter that Apple will unveil a consumer vehicle anytime soon ... and despite the rumors, there still doesn't seem to be any good reason to believe they will including Tim Cook's recent comments in a Kara Swisher Sway podcast ...

Nevertheless, the day Apple DOES announce a consumer car, Tesla's market value will plummet billions ... immediately ...


Anyhoo, what's this have to do with ICE?

Well, there's only one other personal device I can think of that software ate, but didn't destroy the underlying industry: luxury watches. And not just luxury - Seiko has a pretty nice business selling sub-$300 automatics and of course there's Casio and others plus a zillion sub-$500 microbrands.

I suspect if software eats cars (and I think it is), the same thing will happen there as with watches:
a niche of mechanical art nerds will pop up and provide more than enough business to 1,001 boutique automakers.

I think the V8 will live on.

[M5Rick]

V8's for ever and EV's to the bin.

[pikkagtr]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

V8's for ever and EV's to the bin.

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by pikkagtr

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

V8's for ever and EV's to the bin.

At this point EVs are a national security issue for the West as China has invented this industry and will soon take the lead ... some stats:

▸ TSLA leads the World in new EV sales accounting for ~20% of all new EVs sold

▸ VW is a distant 2nd with ~5% of all new EVs sold, but let's assume they'll do better

That sounds pretty damn good! USA! USA! Buuutttt ....


▸ China accounts for ~75% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ The USA is a distant 2nd with ~10% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ Europe is 3rd with ~5% of global lithium-ion battery production



Granted EU companies like Northvolt in Sweden and the governments themselves are trying to supercharge things, and then Canada has a big mining & startup scene, not to mention US efforts by Tesla and others ... it might help, but right now it doesn't look great ...

That said, Lithium isn't really scarce, it's just kinda hard to get, and the West has a decent supply; this is old but dirt is dirt:



The West will catch up or China will own the future of energy (and communications w/ 5G & robotics & AI )

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

At this point EVs are a national security issue for the West as China has invented this industry and will soon take the lead ... some stats:

▸ TSLA leads the World in new EV sales accounting for ~20% of all new EVs sold

▸ VW is a distant 2nd with ~5% of all new EVs sold, but let's assume they'll do better

That sounds pretty damn good! USA! USA! Buuutttt ....


▸ China accounts for ~75% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ The USA is a distant 2nd with ~10% of global lithium-ion battery production

▸ Europe is 3rd with ~5% of global lithium-ion battery production



Granted EU companies like Northvolt in Sweden and the governments themselves are trying to supercharge things, and then Canada has a big mining & startup scene, not to mention US efforts by Tesla and others ... it might help, but right now it doesn't look great ...

That said, Lithium isn't really scarce, it's just kinda hard to get, and the West has a decent supply; this is old but dirt is dirt:



The West will catch up or China will own the future of energy (and communications w/ 5G & robotics & AI )

Interesting statistics,thank you for putting it in that quick format.
China is 75% producer of lithium batteries you say, my only concern otherwise is the use of child slave labour for the Cobalt used for it.
Around 60% of worlds supply comes from DR of Congo and young children are used in unregulated mines there.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

China is 75% producer of lithium batteries you say, my only concern otherwise is the use of child slave labour for the Cobalt used for it.

Well, good news then! Cobalt isn't required for lithium-ion batteries and soon won't be used in most average vehicles including Tesla ... it works likes this:

The battery has 3 pieces, the anode, cathode, and electrolyte:

▸ The anode stores power from the charger, so the materials determine charging time and, to a much less degree, range

▸ The cathode is where the power flows to from the anode during use so the materials determine the range & performance; ~40% of the cost is here.

▸ The electrolyte is a liquid salt solution that facilitates the power transfer between the terminals (the anode & cathode)


So back to the spendy cathode ... VW, as an example, is planning on 3 different chemistries to support different classes of vehicles. Right now, most automotive batteries, to your point, are NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt) though Tesla uses nickel, aluminum, cobalt.

Beyond the other things you stated, cobalt is $$$ and that's why that 40% of cost is in that cathode ... so VW is going to use other chemistries:

▷ FePO4 - iron phosphate, which gets rid of NMC altogether! Tesla is working on this too - the upside is WAY cheaper & can handle way more charge cycles ... but the downside is ~10-20% range/performance loss. Though for a low-cost commuter care who cares and more charge cycle durability in a commuter is a good trade-off!

▷ NM Get rid of the cobalt, cut the nickel down to minimal and use mostly manganese. VW will use this for mid-range vehicles and claims a 30% cost reduction with no compromises in terms of performance or range.

▷ NMC This one will be for niche low-volume heavy duty and high performance vehicles, but with a lot more nickel to increase the range & power.

On the anode side, VW, Tesla, and others have synthetic graphic which is cheaper and allows for fast charging (this is why Taycans can charge from 5% to 80% in 20 minutes)

Beyond that EVERYONE is working on solid state batteries, i.e., no electrolyte - beyond all kinds of other benefits, safety is a big one because current batteries can occasionally develop dendrites that are like little spikes that short circuit the battery and then

I like pictures so here's one from a QuantumScape presentation that shows the relative benefits of solid state LIons vs other chemistries:



The net-net is, I don't think cobalt will be used in any large quantities for automotive batteries going forward, and you can see a time where very little if any would be used.

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well, good news then! Cobalt isn't required for lithium-ion batteries and soon won't be used in most average vehicles including Tesla ... it works likes this:

The battery has 3 pieces, the anode, cathode, and electrolyte:

▸ The anode stores power from the charger, so the materials determine charging time and, to a much less degree, range

▸ The cathode is where the power flows to from the anode during use so the materials determine the range & performance; ~40% of the cost is here.

▸ The electrolyte is a liquid salt solution that facilitates the power transfer between the terminals (the anode & cathode)


So back to the spendy cathode ... VW, as an example, is planning on 3 different chemistries to support different classes of vehicles. Right now, most automotive batteries, to your point, are NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt) though Tesla uses nickel, aluminum, cobalt.

Beyond the other things you stated, cobalt is $$$ and that's why that 40% of cost is in that cathode ... so VW is going to use other chemistries:

▷ FePO4 - iron phosphate, which gets rid of NMC altogether! Tesla is working on this too - the upside is WAY cheaper & can handle way more charge cycles ... but the downside is ~10-20% range/performance loss. Though for a low-cost commuter care who cares and more charge cycle durability in a commuter is a good trade-off!

▷ NM Get rid of the cobalt, cut the nickel down to minimal and use mostly manganese. VW will use this for mid-range vehicles and claims a 30% cost reduction with no compromises in terms of performance or range.

▷ NMC This one will be for niche low-volume heavy duty and high performance vehicles, but with a lot more nickel to increase the range & power.

On the anode side, VW, Tesla, and others have synthetic graphic which is cheaper and allows for fast charging (this is why Taycans can charge from 5% to 80% in 20 minutes)

Beyond that EVERYONE is working on solid state batteries, i.e., no electrolyte - beyond all kinds of other benefits, safety is a big one because current batteries can occasionally develop dendrites that are like little spikes that short circuit the battery and then

I like pictures so here's one from a QuantumScape presentation that shows the relative benefits of solid state LIons vs other chemistries:



The net-net is, I don't think cobalt will be used in any large quantities for automotive batteries going forward, and you can see a time where very little if any would be used.

Good news then as far as Cobalt is concerned which brings my attention to next can o' worms in EV self drive cars and crashes when things go wrong demonstrated by the latest double fatality with a Prius going into a tree and the occupants burnt when the batteries ignited.